Every time mortgage rates move, my feed fills up with the same graphic.
You’ve probably seen it: a bar chart showing interest rates by decade. The punchline is always something like, “Rates were 6–7% in the 1990s and 2000s. They’re 6–7% today. So what’s everyone complaining about?” It sounds clever at first glance. But once you actually run the numbers, you realize how misleading that comparison really is.
The problem isn’t the interest rate in isolation. The problem is the relationship between prices, incomes, and payments—and in the Portland metro area, that relationship has changed dramatically.
Back when rates were 6% in earlier cycles, home prices were much lower relative to what people earned. A 6% mortgage on a $250,000 or $300,000 house is a very different animal than a 6% mortgage on a home in the mid-$500s. Incomes have gone up over time, but in our market, home values have outpaced income growth. That’s the core issue. So when people say “6% then, 6% now,” they’re comparing the same rate but completely ignoring the size of the loan and the pressure on the household budget.
If you look at the most recent RMLS Market Action report for the Portland metro area, the story is pretty clear. Year-to-date, the median sale price is roughly in the mid-$500,000s, slightly higher than at this time last year. The average sale price is over $600,000 and also up a bit year-over-year. Prices aren’t skyrocketing like they were in 2020–2022, but they’re also not meaningfully coming down. They’re holding near historic highs and drifting sideways to slightly up.
At the same time, the market is still moving. New listings, pending sales, and closed sales are all up modestly compared with the same period last year. That’s what a constrained but functioning market looks like: people still need to move, but fewer people can comfortably stretch into the top of the price range. The activity is there, just without the frenzy we saw when money was nearly free.
When you zoom in on the most recent month, you see the friction show up in the details. The median sale price for the month sits right around the low- to mid-$500,000s, and the average sale price is a bit over $600,000. Inventory is sitting at just over three months—higher than the ultra-tight conditions of the pandemic years, and not a true seller's market. What really jumps out is the total market time. Homes are taking longer to sell than they were a year ago. That increase in days on market is a clue that buyers are running into a wall.
And again, the wall isn’t just “6%.” It’s 6% on today’s prices.
Local home affordability spells this out clearly. For 2025, the HUD median family income for the Portland metro area is in the low-$120,000s. The median-priced home is around the mid-$500,000s. If you assume a standard scenario—a 20% down payment and a 30-year fixed mortgage at a rate in the mid-6% range—the typical household earning the median income can’t quite afford the full payment on that median-priced home under standard guidelines. They get to roughly 93% of what’s needed.
That gap is the part the internet memes leave out.
Those “rates by decade” posts implicitly assume that prices, incomes, and payments all stayed proportional over time. They assume that if rates are similar, buyers must be in the same position they were in the 1990s or early 2000s. But that’s not what’s happened in the Portland metro area. We’ve stacked significantly higher prices on top of higher borrowing costs, while incomes have tried to play catch-up. The result is that the share of a household’s income going to the mortgage payment is simply higher than it used to be.
When the payment-to-income ratio stretches too far, you see exactly what we’re seeing now. Homes take longer to sell as buyers become more cautious and payment-sensitive. Inventory drifts upward, not because we’re swimming in listings, but because fewer buyers can comfortably absorb the monthly cost at current prices and rates. The market still functions, but it becomes more selective. Well-priced, well-presented homes sell. Overpriced or tired listings sit.
None of this means it’s a “bad” market. It means the math is more demanding.
If you’re a buyer right now, you’re not crazy if the numbers feel tight. What you’re feeling is the impact of buying into a market where the typical home is in the mid-$500,000s, financed at a rate in the 6s, on an income that hasn’t risen at the same pace as home values. That doesn’t mean you should automatically sit on the sidelines. It does mean you have to approach the decision like an investor, not a meme consumer.
For most people, the key questions are simple: How long do you realistically plan to live in the home? What does the monthly payment look like as a percentage of your income? And can you comfortably cover that payment while still living your life and saving for the future? Time in the market still matters more than perfectly timing the market, but you have to survive the payment to earn the benefit of that time. If rates move lower in the future, refinancing may improve your situation, but that should be treated as upside, not the foundation of your plan.
If you’re a seller, the lesson is different but related. Today’s buyers are more rate- and payment-sensitive than any group we’ve seen in the last decade. Small changes in price translate directly into whether a home is comfortably affordable or just out of reach. In that environment, overpricing isn’t a harmless experiment. It often leads to extended days on market, price reductions, and a lower eventual sale price than if you had priced correctly from the start. The upside is that we aren’t in a crash scenario. Year-to-date prices in our market are essentially flat to slightly up. Well-priced homes still sell. But you can’t rely on the market to bail out poor strategy.
So when you see a graphic trying to equate today’s environment with prior eras just because the interest rate happens to start with the same number, be skeptical. The reality in the Portland metro area is that prices are higher, payments as a share of income are higher, and affordability has eroded compared with earlier 6% periods. That’s why the market feels slower. It’s not about buyers being unrealistic or “spoiled.” It’s about the underlying math.
No hype. No fear. Just math.
And if you want to see how that math looks for your situation—whether you’re thinking about buying or considering selling—reach out. I’m happy to walk through the numbers with you so you can make a decision based on reality, not a recycled internet graphic.
