We’re past the halfway point of 2025, and one thing is becoming increasingly clear: it’s statistically improbable that more than 70% of the homes listed this year will go pending before year-end. This would be the highest percentage of unsold inventory in over a decade.
Let me explain.
📊 The Inventory Story So Far
Through July, over 20,000 homes have been listed for sale in the Portland metro area—a 4.6% increase compared to the same period last year. But only 13,660 homes have gone pending, and the rate of accepted offers is flat compared to 2024.
At this pace, we’re on track for fewer than 22,000 pending sales by year-end.
That matters because we’re likely to see over 30,000 active listings hit the market in 2025—which means 30% or more of those homes simply won’t sell unless affordability changes drastically.
🧮 The Math Behind It
In 2024, we saw about 30,000 new listings and roughly 22,000 pending sales—about 75% of listed homes went under contract.
This year, with more homes coming to market and demand flat, the odds of selling have dropped.
Why? Affordability.
💰 Buyers Can’t Buy What They Can’t Afford
According to the latest RMLS report, a median-income household in Portland can now only afford about 87% of the monthly mortgage payment on a median-priced home—even with a 20% down payment.
That affordability gap is one of the biggest headwinds in our market. People want to move—but they’re often priced out.
And this isn’t just theory. It’s showing up in the data:
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Inventory is rising (now 7,000 active listings as of July).
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Pending sales are stalling.
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Homes are listed for sale longer (market time is up to 52 days on average).
📌 What This Means for Sellers
If you're thinking about selling, here’s the hard truth: you are not just competing with your neighbors—you’re competing with market math.
And most of what we call “marketing” doesn’t change that.
If your home is overpriced, outdated, or simply mismatched to what buyers can afford, no amount of drone video or social media reach is going to get it sold. The market is littered with active inventory that went viral.
Pricing, condition, representation and strategy matter more than ever.
On the bright side, pricing continues to be stable when considering the averages, but not every home is holding its value.
–
David Caldwell
Oregon Principal Real Estate Broker
