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When Interest Rates Drop, But Buyers Don’t Flood In: The Portland Reality

David Caldwell  |  January 23, 2026

In real estate sales pitches, you often hear: “When interest rates drop, get ready for a tidal wave of buyers!” But here in the Portland metro area, we’ve seen something very different. In 2025, mortgage rates edged down from around 7% to roughly 6%, and yet pending sales only nudged upward—ending around 22,120 compared to 21,961 the previous year. In fact, over the last three years, pending sales have barely swayed due to rate shifts.

Why? Because affordability is the real gatekeeper. Lower rates don’t matter if homes are still out of reach. And that’s where the difference between a salesperson and an advisor comes in. A salesperson might focus on the headline, telling you to jump now. An advisor will help you understand whether the market is actually affordable for you.

In this landscape, you don’t just need someone who's trying to sell you; you need someone who can guide you. Work with an advisor who puts your affordability first and helps you strategize beyond interest rate hype. In the end, it’s not about chasing the next dip—it’s about timing your move when it truly aligns with your goals.

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