Over the past three years, the Portland metro housing market has settled into a predictable rhythm — not because things are “booming,” but because the higher-rate environment has been consistent long enough for patterns to emerge.
Take a look at the chart below
Active Listings vs. Pending Sales: A Clear Supply-Demand Imbalance
From January 2023 through September 2025, active residential listings have climbed steadily during each spring and summer. By mid-2025, active inventory peaked above 7,500 listings, the highest level we’ve seen in years.
But pending sales haven’t kept pace. Even during peak months, pending sales hovered around 2,100–2,300 transactions — a far cry from the 3,000+ pendings we were seeing consistently during the 2015–2021 era when mortgage rates were far lower.
This widening gap tells the story of today’s market:
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More choices for buyers, but fewer are pulling the trigger.
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Sellers face more competition, especially for homes that aren’t priced or presented strategically.
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Absorption rates are lower, meaning homes are taking longer to sell and buyers are negotiating more aggressively.
Why This Matters for Sellers
In this type of market, pricing and presentation are everything. With more listings than pending sales, it’s not enough to “test the market.” Homes that sell are:
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Positioned correctly against similar active listings.
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Move-in ready or priced to reflect the work a buyer will need to do.
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Backed by a clear strategy, not just a sign in the yard.
Why This Matters for Buyers
For buyers, this is the most negotiable market we’ve seen in a decade.
More listings + fewer pendings = leverage.
If you’re patient, pre-approved, and strategic, there are opportunities to get terms and pricing that simply weren’t available during the frenzy of 2020–2021.
Big Picture
The consistency of this supply-demand gap over nearly three years tells us something important:
We’re not waiting for the market to “snap back” to 2021. This is the new normal.
Mortgage rates would need to fall substantially — and stay there — for demand to match supply again. Until then, expect seasonal rhythms with a slower pace overall.
Bottom Line
Whether you’re thinking about buying or selling, understanding where the market actually is — not where it used to be — is the key to making smart moves.
If you’d like a personalized market review for your home or neighborhood, reply to this email or schedule a quick call.
