If you've been following the Portland metro area housing market over the past few years, you've probably noticed something: it’s starting to feel predictable again.
That might sound surprising given how turbulent the last decade has been, but the truth is, after three years of sustained higher mortgage rates, buyer and seller behavior has stabilized into a consistent seasonal rhythm. The data for 2025 through September confirms this.
New Listings: Inventory Is Slowly Rebuilding
Over the last decade, the Portland metro area market has swung from hyper-competitive scarcity to a slower, more balanced environment. From 2015 – 2019, new listings through September typically hovered in the 30,000–33,000 range. That number fell sharply after the pandemic frenzy and the subsequent interest rate hikes.
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In 2021, new listings year-to-date through September were 33,258.
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By 2023, that number had fallen to 24,482 — the lowest in over a decade.
- As of September 2025, we’re at 25,290 new listings, a modest 2.6% increase year-over-year
This slow rise suggests more homeowners are adjusting to the “new normal” of mortgage rates in the mid-6% range and making life-driven moves again — not just opportunistic sales.
Pending and Closed Sales: Consistency Returns
Pending and closed sales have followed a similar trajectory:
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Pending sales peaked in 2021 at nearly 28,000 through September, but then declined rapidly as affordability dropped.
- 2025 has seen 17,733 pending and 16,597 closed sales — almost identical to 2023 and 2024
This flattening of transaction volume reflects a market that has found its footing in a higher-rate world. While demand remains well below the boom years, it is no longer in free fall.
Home Values: Modest but Positive Growth
Unlike the roller coaster of 2020–2022, when double-digit annual price growth became the norm, the last two years have brought more measured appreciation:
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The average sale price in Portland Metro is up 0.6% year-over-year to $616,200.
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The median sale price has climbed 0.9% to $550,000
Inventory sits at 3.8 months, and total market time averages 62 days, both indicative of a balanced or slightly soft market — a far cry from the one-week inventory levels and 20+ offer scenarios of 2021.
Affordability: Still the Key Factor
Perhaps the most telling figure is the Affordability Index, currently at 93%. That means a median-income household ($124,100 in 2025) can afford 93% of the monthly payment on a median-priced home with 20% down and a 6.6% mortgage rate.
This is an improvement from the 80s-level affordability shocks of 2022 but still short of full affordability. That gap continues to be the primary limiting factor on demand.
Why This Predictability Matters
The past 10 years have included:
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2013–2019: Sustained low rates, steady appreciation, and tight inventory.
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2020–2021: Pandemic boom, ultra-low rates, extreme competition.
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2022–2023: Rapid rate shock, affordability collapse, listing drought.
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2024–2025: Stabilization — moderate listings, flat pricing, longer market times.
This return to seasonal, data-driven rhythms makes it easier to advise buyers and sellers with confidence. Sellers can no longer expect to underprice and ignite a bidding war. Buyers, meanwhile, can make strategic moves without panic.
David’s Take
“The Portland housing market isn’t crashing, and it isn’t booming — it’s normalizing. For serious buyers and sellers, that’s good news. Predictability allows for better planning, smarter negotiations, and realistic expectations.”
As we head into the final quarter of 2025, the market’s trajectory looks steady. Inventory remains moderate, demand is consistent, and prices are inching forward — a pragmatic backdrop for anyone considering a move.
David Caldwell
Principal Real Estate Broker
Hillshire Realty Group at Real Broker
