I’ve always thought about months of inventory the same way I think about driving on a freeway.
When the freeway is wide open, traffic is light, and everyone’s moving in the same direction, you get where you’re going quickly. That’s what a low months-of-inventory market feels like. Homes sell faster, buyers move decisively, and pricing tends to be efficient because demand is clearly outpacing supply.
But when traffic builds—lanes fill up, speeds slow, and exits start backing up—it takes longer to reach your destination. That’s what higher months of inventory does to the housing market. Homes still sell, but they take longer. Buyers have more options, and pricing becomes far less forgiving.
Months of inventory is simply a measure of how long it should take to sell everything currently on the market at today’s pace of sales. It doesn’t predict the future, but it tells us a lot about current conditions. Low inventory doesn’t mean prices automatically skyrocket. High inventory doesn’t mean prices collapse. What it really tells us is how much resistance there is in the system.
Less resistance = faster outcomes. More resistance = slower outcomes.
In the Portland metro area housing market, since 2023, we’ve been driving in a very different environment— because interest rates fundamentally changed how people move. Higher rates didn’t shut the freeway down, but they added friction. Buyers still exist, but fewer of them can comfortably move at the same speed. They are more rate-sensitive and price-conscious. The result has been a gradual, seasonal build in listing inventory rather than the ultra-tight conditions we saw in 2020–2021.
Looking at recent data, months of inventory has generally trended higher through the year since 2023, often peaking in the fall or early winter before easing again. After 3 years in a high interest rate enviorment, we have a new seasonal rhythm. In a low-inventory market, pricing mistakes sometimes don’t matter much. A home priced a little too high can still get along in traffic. In a higher-inventory market, pricing mistakes get exposed quickly.
When there are more cars on the road:
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Buyers slow down
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Comparisons increase
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Time on market lengthens
Homes that are priced correctly still sell. Homes that aren’t are listed for sale longer, require reductions, eventually chase the market downward, or don’t sell at all. What we’ve seen since 2023 is not a broad price collapse, but pricing sensitivity. Well-positioned homes move. Overpriced homes stall and sell at market discounts. Many sellers are still anchored to memories of a near-empty freeway. That market was real—but it was also an anomaly.
Today’s market requires a different mindset. If inventory is higher, your job isn’t to hope traffic clears. It’s to merge correctly:
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Price with today’s buyers in mind
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Understand current competition
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Accept that speed now comes from strategy, not scarcity
As of January 2026, the market inventory sits at 4.3 months in the Portland metro area, the highest we have seen since early 2013. Right now, the market feels slower than it did a few years ago—but it's likely we will find the same seasonal rhythm we have seen since 2023.
We’re not stuck.
We’re not crashing.
We’re just driving in traffic again.
And when you understand that, you stop reacting emotionally and start making better decisions—whether you’re buying, selling, or simply trying to time your move.
That’s why months of inventory remains one of the most useful tools I use as an advisor. It doesn’t hype the market; it explains it. And just like traffic, once you understand the flow, the drive gets a lot less stressful.
David Caldwell
Principal Real Estate Broker
