“I’ll Wait for the Market to Improve in 3 Months…” — Why That May Not Work Out
In real estate, one of the most common statements we hear from buyers and sellers alike is:
“I’ll just wait 3 months. The market will improve.”
While it’s understandable to hope that prices will fall or demand will pick up in the near future, the reality painted by today’s data suggests otherwise. Let’s look at a few key trends in the Portland Metro housing market to better understand what’s likely over the next few months — and why waiting may not help.
📉 Pending Sales Are at Multi-Year Lows
Pending sales — a measure of how many homes go under contract — are at their lowest level in over a decade, even when accounting for seasonal trends. The chart above shows how pending sales in 2024 were well below the 10-year average, and 2025 year-to-date is even lower.
Fewer buyers are writing offers, not because they’re waiting for a better moment, but because affordability has deteriorated and elevated inventory levels are lingering. If you’re waiting for a sudden rush of buyers in 3 months, the data suggests that’s unlikely.
🏘️ Inventory and Unsold Listings Are Rising
Over the past several years, we’ve seen the percentage of homes that remain unsold at the end of each year climb significantly — from about 10–15% before 2022 to closer to 25–35% today.
More homes on the market, combined with slower buyer demand, means sellers face more competition and longer times on the market. If you’re a seller waiting for “better demand,” focus on the price you're selling at. Although you may not be at the peak, pricing has historically remained relatively stable.
📊 New Listings Are Outpacing Sales
Even though new listings have dropped from their 2015–2020 highs, they still outpace pending sales significantly. That gap creates upward pressure on inventory — which typically leads to either longer market times or lower prices.
Waiting for the market to suddenly shift back to the frenzied pace of 2021 ignores the fundamentals: higher mortgage rates, lower affordability, and elevated inventory.
